With the new energy subsidy policy coming out, and the “Tesla effect” from the other side of the ocean once detonated the new energy auto sector in the A-share market, the development of new energy vehicles once again entered people's field of vision, and as the core of electric drive power Parts, lithium batteries account for 50%-70% of the total cost of power. With the development of the new energy market, lithium batteries are one of the largest revenue industries, and concerns about the blind expansion of lithium battery capacity have followed.

As early as during the two sessions, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei revealed that the state's subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will continue this year, subsidies will increase, and subsidy standards will increase. Miao Wei showed that in order to comply with the current energy and environmental situation, in view of the small effect of the previous new energy policy subsidy, the current subsidy policy still needs to continue. In the past, China mainly used buses, but recently private purchase of new energy vehicles began to take off. The next step will be to increase the intensity of private investment in the development of new energy vehicles. According to Lu Xiangyu, director of the Major Project Coordination Division of the Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission, the existing 15,000 taxis in Shenzhen will be replaced by pure electric taxis. From the second half of 2013, Shenzhen will launch electric taxis. Incentive policies and charging facilities supporting policies. In addition, many markets such as Hangzhou and Anhui have the goals and supporting policies to increase the promotion of new energy vehicles.

Relevant media also reported that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be extended for three years, the original 25 demonstration cities will be further expanded; the subsidy for car purchase will no longer be restricted by the demonstration city area, and the pure electric vehicle will reach 60,000 yuan per vehicle. The subsidy will remain unchanged, and the subsidy standard for the original plug-in hybrid new energy vehicle of 3,000 yuan/kWh is expected to increase.

Various speculations on the policy, another round of igniting the investment enthusiasm of lithium batteries, but as the darling of the energy industry, there are still many issues worthy of attention in the development process. The development of lithium battery seems to have some similarities with the photovoltaic industry that is at the forefront. Will it be in the same way as the photovoltaic industry, and it will expand rapidly in a short period of time, resulting in overcapacity, declining profitability, industry supply exceeding market demand, etc. This series of questions has worried the industry.

According to some report data, from the end of 2012 to June 2013, due to policy expectations, lithium battery investment continues to increase, and the current planned investment projects will form more than 5 billion ampere capacity by 2015. According to a report released by Frost & Sullivan, the total demand for plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles and electric commercial vehicles in China will be only about 120,000 units by 2015, and the consumption of lithium batteries will be about 900 million amps. Exceeding demand. As early as 2010, Roland Berger said in the global lithium battery survey report that as of 2015, the global automotive lithium battery capacity will be at least twice the actual demand.

However, in addition to the problem of whether the production and demand are balanced, China's automotive lithium batteries still have insufficient effective capacity. China's lithium-ion batteries for vehicles are currently too fragmented, and they are still in the primary test stage, and they have not reached the point of commercialization.

Dong Ming, chairman of Hengzheng Suzhou, which specializes in the production of lithium batteries for vehicles, once said that “there are demand for batteries. The pilot cities have now developed into 25 cities, and many cars are on new energy vehicles. Efforts. On the contrary, the battery produced cannot meet the requirements of the car, so there is no output. Now there is a market for the car battery, no qualified product."

In the face of the encouragement of the new policy, the already invested lithium battery manufacturers also have a blind investment tendency. Investors hope that they will survive in ten years. In the face of the current situation, they can only opt out or become larger. expansion. In terms of technological innovation, most investors have a tendency to adopt the previous generation of materials, and the investment organization has little power to develop the next generation. The large capacity but at the low-end technology level is another severe test for lithium batteries in China.

At the same time, most of the domestic lithium-ion projects are invested in incentives such as local governments and bank loans. There is no supporting experience with the automotive industry and no capital relationship with mainstream automakers. The international brand of lithium battery companies are more inclined to adopt market strategic cooperation with mainstream auto manufacturers to obtain a stable supporting market.

Over the years, we have been hoping to open up the new energy vehicle market. However, after a round of investment boom, whether it can surpass the technological innovation research and development, whether it can get rid of repeated construction and copy low-end technology, which is away from Without the scientific planning and reasonable constraints of the government and industry departments, it is even more necessary to make calm decisions of relevant enterprises.